Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Vietnam

COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease which has apparently frozen the entire globe along with its economy. Its astonishing ability of human-to-human and surface-to-human transmission has turned the planet Earth into recurrent catastrophic waves. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Vietnam. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam Faso for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our simple model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable. The study established that daily COVID-19 cases in Vietnam are likely to remain very low over the out-of-sample period. The government of Vietnam should, however, ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, including vaccinations. This is expected to play a pivotal role, particularly in avoiding extremely dangerous daily COVID-19 case volumes in the country, even in the face of new variants.