Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Burundi

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Burundi. The employed data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Burundi are likely to be between 5.4 and 5.7 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Burundi is encouraged to focus on addressing challenges being encountered by adolescents and young adults so as to prevent unwanted pregnancies and other undesirable sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, and prioritize women empowerment programs.