Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Comoros

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Comoros. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Comoros. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Comoros are likely to increase from 4.36 births per woman in 2019 to 4.70 births per woman in 2025 and then drop to 4.25 births per woman in 2030. Therefore, authorities in Comoros are encouraged to focus on improving access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents and young adults and fund women empowerment programs.