Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Niger

The high fertility rates being witnessed in Niger are a reflection of an urgent need to aggressively implement population control measures to mitigate undesirable consequences of uncontrolled population growth by 2050.In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Niger. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Niger. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Niger are likely to slightly decline over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Niger government must create a high demand for family planning services, address challenges that hinder access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services particularly among adolescents and young adults and engage on an aggressive women empowerment program.