Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Sierra Leone Using a Machine Learning Method

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Sierra Leone. The employed data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Sierra Leone. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Sierra Leone are likely to remain around 4.2 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in Sierra Leone are encouraged to prioritize creating demand for family planning services, addressing challenges faced by adolescents and young adults when seeking sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services and scaling up women empowerment program activities.