Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Somalia

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Somalia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Somalia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Somalia are likely to remain around 6 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Somalia should focus on creating demand for sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services, address challenges encountered by adolescents and young adults when seeking family planning services and scale up women empowerment program activities.