Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In South Africa
Abstract
In this research
article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR. The employed annual data
covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period
2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE)
of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in
South Africa. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in South Africa are likely to remain around 2.4 births per
woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we recommend that the authorities
in South Africa should
create more demand for family planning, HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy
(ART) services, address challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults
when seeking health services and continuously fund women empowerment program
activities.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 363-366
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