Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In South Sudan

Abstract

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in South Sudan. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in South Sudan. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in South Sudan are likely to hover around 5.0 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of South Sudan is encouraged to prioritize family planning services to prevent adverse maternal and child health outcomes and channel more resources towards women empowerment programs.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 384-387

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508085

References

  1. Worldometer (2020). South Sudan demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
  2. Sumit Kane., Maryse Kok., Matilda Rial., Anthony Matere., Marjolein Dieleman and Jacqueline EW Broerse (2016). Social norms and family planning decisions in South Sudan, BMC Public Health (2016) 16:1183 DOI 10.1186/s12889-016-3839-6
  3.  MoH GoSS (2012). Republic of South Sudan. Ministry of Health. Health Sector Development Plan 2012–2016.
  4. Mugo N., Zwi A., Botfield JR & Steiner C (2015). Maternal and Child Health in South Sudan: Priorities for the Post-2015 Agenda. Sage Open. 2015;1–14
  5. Ministry of Health of South Sudan (2010). South Sudan National Reproductive Health Strategic Plan, 2011–2015. 2011. 5. SSCCEC. Summary Findings South Sudan Household Survey.