Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In South Sudan

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in South Sudan. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in South Sudan. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in South Sudan are likely to hover around 5.0 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of South Sudan is encouraged to prioritize family planning services to prevent adverse maternal and child health outcomes and channel more resources towards women empowerment programs.