Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Syria

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Syria. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Syria. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Syria are likely to be around 3.1 throughout the out-of-sample period Therefore; the Syrian government is encouraged to continuously improve accessibility of family planning services to prevent adverse maternal and child health outcomes and channel more resources towards women empowerment.