Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Tunisia

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Tunisia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Tunisia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Tunisia are likely to remain around 2.1 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in Tunisia are encouraged to continue improving accessibility of family planning services for the Tunisian population and empowering women.