Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Turkey Using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Turkey. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Turkey. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Turkey are likely to be around 2.3 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Turkish government is encouraged to continue on this commendable path by continuously addressing challenges being faced by adolescent girls and young women.