Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Benin Using a Machine Learning Algorithm

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Benin. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2019 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2020-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Benin. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Benin are likely to be around 4.8 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Benin should improve awareness of family planning services to adolescents and young adults through mass media and other locally available platforms and channel more resources towards girl child and women empowerment program activities.