Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Chad Using a Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Chad. The employed data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Chad. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Chad are likely to increase over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, authorities in Chad are encouraged to (1) increase demand creation activities for family planning services and improve accessibility of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents and young adults, and (2) continuous empowerment of women through education, labor participation and promoting women’s rights.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 155-158

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508030

References

  1. Worldometer (2020). Chad demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
  2. Barot S (2014). “Looking Back While Moving Forward: Marking 20 Years since the International Conference on Population and Development.” Guttmacher Policy Review 17 (3). Guttmacher Institute. https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/article_files/gpr170322.pdf
  3. FP2020 (2017a). “The Family Planning Summit for Safer, Healthier and Empowered Futures.” http://ec2- 54-210-230-186.compute-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FP2020_Summit_Outcome_ Document_V10_Clean.pdf
  4. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and Population Division (2017b). World Family Planning 2017– Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/414). http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/ population/publications/pdf/family/WFP2017_Highlights.pdf.