Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Congo Using the Multilayer Perceptron
Abstract
In this research
paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Congo. The employed
annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges
over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TFR in Congo. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Congo are
likely to increase from 4.56 births per woman in 2019 to 5.99 births per woman
in 2027 and then fall to 4.50 births per woman in 2030. Therefore, the
Congolese government is encouraged to (1) address challenges being faced by adolescents
and young adults in accessing family planning services in order to prevent
unwanted pregnancies and other undesirable sexual and reproductive health (SRH)
outcomes among this age group, and (2) promote women’s rights.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 143-146
