Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Congo Using the Multilayer Perceptron

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Congo. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Congo. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Congo are likely to increase from 4.56 births per woman in 2019 to 5.99 births per woman in 2027 and then fall to 4.50 births per woman in 2030. Therefore, the Congolese government is encouraged to (1) address challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in accessing family planning services in order to prevent unwanted pregnancies and other undesirable sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes among this age group, and (2) promote women’s rights.