Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Costa Rica

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Costa Rica. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Costa Rica. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in the country are likely to be around 2 births per woman towards the end of out-of-sample period. Therefore, we encourage the authorities in Costa Rica to continue improving the quality of family planning services to minimize adverse maternal and child health outcomes.