Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Egypt

The International conference on Population and Development took place in the Egyptian Capital, Cairo in 1994 and triggered the recognition of sexual and reproductive health rights as fundamental human rights. Violation of sexual and reproductive health rights especially those of adolescent girls and women is common around the world. Sociocultural, demographic and spatial factors are the major determinants of fertility. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Egypt. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Egypt. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Egypt are generally likely to rise slightly over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Egyptian government is encouraged to improve accessibility of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services especially among adolescents and young adults to prevent unintended pregnancies and other adverse SRH outcomes.