Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Ethiopia

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Ethiopia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Ethiopia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Ethiopia are likely to remain around 4.3 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Ethiopian government is encouraged to (1) focus on creating more demand for family planning services and tackle system challenges which hinder access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services (2) promote women empowerment through funding women empowerment programs.