Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Liberia

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Liberia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Liberia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Liberia are likely to remain around 4.0 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Liberian government is encouraged to focus on addressing the various challenges being encountered by adolescent girls and women, and promotion of women empowerment.