Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Liberia

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Liberia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Liberia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Liberia are likely to remain around 4.0 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Liberian government is encouraged to focus on addressing the various challenges being encountered by adolescent girls and women, and promotion of women empowerment.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 311-318

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508068

References

  1. Worldometer (2020). Liberia demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
  2. FRANCIS Fonanyeneh (2020). EVALUATION OF ADOLESCENT FERTILITY DATA AND ESTIMATES, Monrovia Liberia. pp 1-14
  3. 2019 Liberia Demographic health survey.
  4. WHO. Global Health Observatory, Liberia Health System. Geneva: WHO; 2016.