Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Libya

In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Libya. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Libya. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Libya are likely to hover around 2.4 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Libyan government is encouraged to continue improving access to family planning services to minimize adverse maternal and child health outcomes, and promotion of women empowerment and rights.