Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Vietnam

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Vietnam. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Vietnam. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in the country are likely to be around 2.0 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we encourage the authorities in Vietnam to continue improving the quality of family planning services to minimize adverse maternal and child health outcomes.