Forecasting Total Fertility Rate in Malawi

Abstract

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Malawi. The employed data annual covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Malawi. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Malawi are likely to be around 4.3 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Malawian government is encouraged to increase public awareness of family planning programs in order to reduce adverse sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, prioritize women empowerment. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 236-239

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508050

References

  1. Mahesh Karra, David Canning, Daniel Maggio (2016). The Impact of Family Planning on Fertility, Birth Spacing, and Child Development in Urban Malawi, pp 1-4.
  2.  Kaphagawani NC & Kalipeni E (2017). Sociocultural factors contributing to teenage pregnancy in Zomba District, Malawi. Glob Public Health, 12(6):694– 710. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2016.1229354
  3. Worldometer (2020). Malawi demographics. https://www.worldometers.info