Forecasting Total Fertility Rate in Malawi

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Malawi. The employed data annual covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Malawi. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Malawi are likely to be around 4.3 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Malawian government is encouraged to increase public awareness of family planning programs in order to reduce adverse sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, prioritize women empowerment.