Forecasting Total Fertility Rate in Thailand

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Thailand. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Thailand. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Thailand are likely hover around 2 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in Thailand should address pertinent challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in accessing family planning services and fund empowerment programs for women.