Forecasting Total Fertility Rate in the Central African (CAF) Republic
Abstract
In this research
article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in CAF Republic. The
employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period
ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is
stable in forecasting TFR in CAF Republic. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Central Africa
Republic
are likely to decline over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in the CAF Republic
should address pertinent challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults
in accessing family planning services and fund empowerment
programs for women.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 183-186
Alkema L., Kantorova V., Menozzi C.,
Biddlecom A (2013). National, regional, and global rates and trends in
contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and
2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. Lancet, 381(9878):1642–52.
Scientific and Technical Advisory Group
(STAG), The Gender and Rights Advisory Panel (GRAP). Statement on the
promotion, protection and fulfilment of sexual and reproductive health and
rights (2017). Geneva: UNDP/ UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/WORLD BANK Special Programe of
Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.
Guttmacher Institute (2017). Adding It Up:
Investing in Contraception and Maternal and Newborn Health. New York.