Forecasting Total Fertility Rate in the Central African (CAF) Republic

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in CAF Republic. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in CAF Republic. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Central Africa Republic are likely to decline over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in the CAF Republic should address pertinent challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in accessing family planning services and fund empowerment programs for women.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 183-186

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508037

References

  1. UNFPA. (2012a). Marrying too Young: End Child Marriage. New York, NY: UNFPA.
  2. UNICEF (2014b). The State of the World’s Children 2015: Reimagine the Future: Innovation for Every Child, New York
  3. UNICEF (2014b). Ending Child Marriage: Progress and prospects, New York
  4. Walker, J. A. (2012). Early marriage in Africa – Trends, harmful effects, and interventions. African Journal of Reproductive Health 16(2): 231-240.
  5. UNICEF (2015). Child marriage, Adolescent pregnancy and Family formation in West and Central Africa, pp1-86.
  6. Worldometer (2020). CAF Republic demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
  7. Alkema L., Kantorova V., Menozzi C., Biddlecom A (2013). National, regional, and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. Lancet, 381(9878):1642–52.
  8. Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG), The Gender and Rights Advisory Panel (GRAP). Statement on the promotion, protection and fulfilment of sexual and reproductive health and rights (2017). Geneva: UNDP/ UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/WORLD BANK Special Programe of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.
  9. Guttmacher Institute (2017). Adding It Up: Investing in Contraception and Maternal and Newborn Health. New York.