Machine Learning Application in Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Madagascar

In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Madagascar. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Madagascar. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Madagascar are likely to range from 4.17 to 4.46 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Madagascar is encouraged to focus on improving access to SRH services among adolescents and young adults to avert undesirable sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, and promotion of women empowerment.