Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In the Gambia Using an Artificial Neural Network Approach

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in the Gambia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in the Gambia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in the Gambia are likely to be between 5.2 and 5.6 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Gambian government is encouraged to focus on addressing barriers to accessing family planning services, increase public awareness of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services and scale up women empowerment program activities.