Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Australia
Abstract
In this research
paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Australia. The employed
annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges
over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TFR in Australia. The model projections revealed that annual total fertility rates in Australia are
likely to be around 1.8 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the
Australian government must promote child bearing by offering pro-fertility incentives and lowering
the cost of raising children.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 248-251
Han Lin Shang and Heather Booth (2020).
Synergy in fertility forecasting: improving forecast accuracy through model
averaging, Genus (2020) 76:27 https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00099-y.
Worldometer (2020). Australia demographics.
https://www.worldometers.info
