Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Australia

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Australia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Australia. The model projections revealed that annual total fertility rates in Australia are likely to be around 1.8 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Australian government must promote child bearing by offering pro-fertility incentives and lowering the cost of raising children.