Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Brazil

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Brazil. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Brazil. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Brazil are likely to be 1.9 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Brazilian government is encouraged to promote child bearing by providing pro-fertility incentives to couples and lowering the cost of raising children.