Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in China Using an Artificial Intelligence Technique
Abstract
China is the most
populous country in the world and continues to record an annual population
growth of approximately 6-7 million. In this research article, the ANN approach
was proposed to analyze TFR in China. The employed annual data covers the
period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030.
The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the
applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in China.
The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in China are likely to be around 1.7
births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the
Chinese government is encouraged to continue with its strict population control policy.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 167-170
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https://eldis.org/document/A21331.
