Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Colombia

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Colombia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Colombia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Colombia are likely to be around 2.2 births per woman in most of the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government should continue addressing adolescent and young adult challenges in accessing Sexual Reproductive Health (SRH) services and continue funding women empowerment programs.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 203-206

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508042

References

  1. Castanheira., Helena Cruz and Kohler., & Hans-Peter (2015). "It is Lower than You Think it is: Recent Total Fertility Rates in Brazil and Possibly Other Latin American Countries" (2015). PSC Working Paper Series. 63. https://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/63
  2. Demena (2005). Melake Demena (2005). Population and Development.Lecture notes for Health Science Students. pp 1-153.
  3. Ewa Batyra., Tiziana Leone., & Mikko Myrskylä (2021). Forecasting of Cohort Fertility by Educational Level in Countries with Limited Data Availability: The Case of Brazil, MPIDR Working Paper WP 2021-011 l June 2021 https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-011
  4. Castanheira., Helena Cruz, and Hans-Peter Kohler (2016). “It Is Lower than You Think It Is: Recent Total Fertility Rates in Brazil and Possibly Other Latin American Countries.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington DC., March 30-April 2, 2016
  5. Worldometer (2020). Colombia demographics. https://www.worldometers.info