Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Colombia

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Colombia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Colombia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Colombia are likely to be around 2.2 births per woman in most of the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government should continue addressing adolescent and young adult challenges in accessing Sexual Reproductive Health (SRH) services and continue funding women empowerment programs.