Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Guinea Using a Machine Learning Technique

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Guinea. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Guinea. The model projections revealed that annual total fertility rates in Guinea are generally likely to remain around 4.6 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Guinea is encouraged to focus on creating more demand for family planning services, address barriers to access among adolescents and young adults, and promote women empowerment.