Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Indonesia Using a Machine Learning Approach

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Indonesia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Indonesia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Indonesia are likely to be around 2.5 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Indonesian government is encouraged to create more demand for family planning services, address challenges being experienced by adolescents and young adults and continue implementing women empowerment programs.