Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Iran

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Iran. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Iran. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Iran are likely to be around 1.9 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Iranian government is encouraged to continuously address challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in accessing sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services.