Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Iraq Using a Machine Learning Technique
Abstract
In this research
article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Iraq. The employed
annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges
over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TFR in Iraq. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Iraq are likely
to be around 4.5 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Iraq
government is encouraged to address barriers to accessing sexual and reproductive health (SRH)
services, create more demand for family planning services and scale up women
empowerment program activities.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
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