Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Romania

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Romania. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2019 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Romania. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Romania are likely to hover around 1 birth per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government is encouraged to promote child bearing by providing incentives to couples.