Projection of Total Fertility Rate in Malaysia

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Malaysia. The employed data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Malaysia. The model projections suggest that annual total fertility rates in Malaysia are likely to be around 2.1 births throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Malaysian government is encouraged to continue with their 2017 strategic action plan to keep TFR between 1.9 and 2.1 until 2030.