Time Series Forecasting Of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Sudan

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Sudan. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Sudan. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Sudan are likely to be around 4.5 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Sudan is encouraged to focus on improving accessibility of SRH services, create more demand for family planning services targeting the reproductive age group and scale up women empowerment program activities.