Time Series Forecasting Of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Tanzania

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Tanzania. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Tanzania. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Tanzania are likely to slightly decline over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Tanzanian government is encouraged to create more demand for family planning services, HIV testing and ART (Antiretroviral therapy) services, address adolescent challenges experienced when seeking health care services and channel more resources towards women empowerment program activities.