Time Series Forecasting Of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Uganda

The Ugandan population pyramid is broad based reflecting high birth rates, high fertility rates, and lower life expectancies. In this piece of work, the ANN approach was proposed to analyze TFR in Uganda. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Uganda. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Uganda are likely to remain around 5.0 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Ugandan government is encouraged to focus on creating more demand for family planning, HIV testing and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) services, address challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in accessing family planning services and continuously fund women empowerment program activities.