Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Kenya
Abstract
In this piece of
work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Kenya. The employed annual
data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and
MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR
in Kenya. The results of the study revealed that annual total fertility rates in Kenya are
likely to hover around 4.0 births per woman/ year over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the
Kenyan government should focus on improving access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH)
services among adolescents and young adults, and promote female
education & women’s rights.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 232-235
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