Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Lesotho
Abstract
In this research
paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Lesotho. The employed
annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges
over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TFR in Lesotho. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Lesotho are likely to remain around 3.0 births per
woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Lesotho should focus on improving access
to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents and youths
and promotion of women empowerment.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 289-292
Áine Aventin., Stephan Rabie., Sarah
Skeen., Mark Tomlinson., Moroesi Makhetha., Zanele Siqabatiso., Maria Lohan.,
Mike Clarke., Lynne Lohfeld., Allen Thurston & Jackie Stewart (2021)
Adaptation of a gender-transformative sexual and reproductive health
intervention for adolescent boys in South Africa and Lesotho using intervention
mapping, Global Health Action, 14:1, 1927329, DOI:
10.1080/16549716.2021.1927329
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