Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Lesotho

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Lesotho. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Lesotho. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Lesotho are likely to remain around 3.0 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the government of Lesotho should focus on improving access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services among adolescents and youths and promotion of women empowerment.