Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Zambia

Zambia’s population pyramid is broad based indicating high fertility rates and lower life expectancy which is characteristic of developing countries. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Zambia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Zambia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Zambia are likely to hover around 5.0 births per woman (ranging from 4.5 to 4.7) over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Zambian government to focus on addressing adolescent and young adult challenges encountered when seeking sexual and reproductive health services in health care facilities and channel more resources towards women empowerment program activities.