Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Zambia

Abstract

Zambia’s population pyramid is broad based indicating high fertility rates and lower life expectancy which is characteristic of developing countries. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Zambia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Zambia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Zambia are likely to hover around 5.0 births per woman (ranging from 4.5 to 4.7) over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Zambian government to focus on addressing adolescent and young adult challenges encountered when seeking sexual and reproductive health services in health care facilities and channel more resources towards women empowerment program activities.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 437-440

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508098

References

  1. Worldometer (2020). Zambia demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
  2. CSO (2010). Central statistical office projections.
  3. CSO (2014). Central statistical office projections.
  4. CSO (2019). Central statistical projections
  5. Zambia Policy Brief (2017). STATUS OF SEXUAL AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND RIGHTS IN ZAMBIA Comprehensive Sexuality Education and Adolescents Sexual and Reproductive Health, pp 1-8.