Time Series Prediction of Total Fertility Rate in Rwanda
Abstract
The decline in total
fertility rates in Rwanda is partly due to her successful family planning
program. In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in
Rwanda. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the
out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and
forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate
that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Rwanda. The results of the study
indicate that annual total
fertility rates in Rwanda are likely to decline slightly over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we
encourage the Rwandan government to focus on improving access to sexual and reproductive (SRH) services
among adolescents and young adults by addressing their challenges and promotion of
women empowerment.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 359-362
