Time Series Prediction of Total Fertility Rate in Rwanda

The decline in total fertility rates in Rwanda is partly due to her successful family planning program. In this piece of work, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Rwanda. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Rwanda. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Rwanda are likely to decline slightly over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, we encourage the Rwandan government to focus on improving access to sexual and reproductive (SRH) services among adolescents and young adults by addressing their challenges and promotion of women empowerment.