Univariate Time Series Analysis of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Mauritius

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Mauritius. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Mauritius. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Mauritius will remain below replacement level and generally likely to decline over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, authorities in Mauritius are encouraged to promote child bearing by providing pro-fertility incentives and lowering the cost of raising children.