Univariate Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate in Mozambique

The current civil conflict in Mozambique is likely to have serious negative impacts on the health delivery system and other key services as the nation is struggling to control the epidemics of TB, HIV and COVID-19.The country has persistently reported undesirable levels of maternal and child health indicators as well as high fertility rates. In this research paper, the ANN approach was proposed to analyze total fertility rate (TFR) in Mozambique. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Mozambique. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Mozambique are likely to decline over the out-of-sample period but will still remain high. Therefore, we encourage the Mozambican government to focus on addressing sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges being faced by adolescents and young adults in order to reduce adverse maternal and child health outcomes, and channel more resources towards women empowerment programs.