Univariate Time Series Forecasting of Total Fertility Rate in Mozambique
Abstract
The current civil
conflict in Mozambique is likely to have serious negative impacts on the health
delivery system and other key services as the nation is struggling to control
the epidemics of TB, HIV and COVID-19.The country has persistently reported undesirable
levels of maternal and child health indicators as well as high fertility rates.
In this research paper, the ANN approach was proposed to analyze total
fertility rate (TFR) in Mozambique. The employed annual data covers the period
1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Mozambique. The
results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Mozambique are likely to decline over the out-of-sample
period but will still remain high. Therefore, we encourage the Mozambican
government to
focus on addressing sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges being faced
by adolescents and young adults in order to reduce adverse maternal and child
health outcomes, and channel more resources towards women empowerment programs.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 268-271
