Addressing Teenage Pregnancy and Child Births in Indonesia through Use of Evidence Based Adolescent Health Policies

This research article employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Indonesia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Indonesia to continuously promote girl child education, protect the rights of women and girls, and fund youth empowerment projects to improve their labor participation.