Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study employs annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Botswana from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s
linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α
and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study
indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout
the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Botswana to
tirelessly address all the socio-cultural, geographic and economic factors that
contribute to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 137-141