Applying the Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Detect Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Botswana

Abstract

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Botswana from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Botswana to tirelessly address all the socio-cultural, geographic and economic factors that contribute to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 137-141

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612025

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