Demonstrating The Use of Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Detect Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for the Dominican Republic

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the Dominican Republic from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain high throughout the out of sample period. In order to substantially reduce adolescent fertility by 2030, the government must set up adolescent friendly clinics especially in marginalized areas, scale up awareness campaigns, strictly enforce laws that protect women’s rights and promote girl child education.