International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Detecting Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Azerbaijan Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Azerbaijan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Azerbaijan to scale up awareness campaigns, promote girl child education and strictly enforce laws to protect sexual and reproductive health rights of adolescent girls and women in order to reverse the projected upward trend of adolescent fertility. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 109-113

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612019

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