International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Detecting Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Azerbaijan Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 6 No 12 (2022): Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 | Pages: 109-113

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 16-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612019

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Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Azerbaijan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Azerbaijan to scale up awareness campaigns, promote girl child education and strictly enforce laws to protect sexual and reproductive health rights of adolescent girls and women in order to reverse the projected upward trend of adolescent fertility. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Detecting Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Azerbaijan Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp 109-113, December 2022. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612019

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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