Detecting Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Cambodia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This study employs annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Cambodia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected
to increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Cambodia to scale up educational campaigns and allocate more
funding towards improving access and quality of family planning services in
order to avert adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 162-166
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