International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Detecting Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Chad Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Chad from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate is anticipated to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Chad to allocate more funding towards SRH programs with the aim of scaling up educational campaigns among communities, strictly enforcing laws to protect women’s rights, promote girl child education, fund empowerment programs for youths and create adolescent friendly health facilities and improving access to quality and affordable SRH services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 171-176

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612032

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. UNICEF (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. UNFPA (2016). State of the world population 2016 [Internet]. New York, New York. Available from: http://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/sowp/ downloads/The_State_of_World_Population_2016_-_English.pdf.
  3. UNICEF (2019). A profile of child marriage and early unions in Latin America and theCaribbean:https://www.unicef.org/lac/media/8256/file/Profile%20of%20Child%20Marriage%2 0in%20LAC.pdf.
  4. Koski A., and Heymann J (2018). Child marriage in the United States: how common is the practice, and which children are at greatest risk? Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 50(2):59–65 Available from: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1363/ psrh.12055.
  5. WHO (2020). Chad Contraception within the context of adolescents’ sexual and reproductive lives: Country profile, pp 1-3.
  6. Kassa GM, Arowojolu AO, Odukogbe AA, Yalew AW (2018). Prevalence and determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Africa: a systematic review and Meta-analysis. Reprod Health. 2018;15:195.
  7. Kassa GM, Arowojolu AO, Odukogbe A-TA, Yalew AW (2019). Trends and determinants of teenage childbearing in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2000 to 2016 demographic and health surveys. Ital JPediatr, 45:153, 20-24.
  8. Wado Y.D., Sully E. A., and Mumah J.N (2019). Pregnancy and early motherhood among adolescents in five East African countries: a multi-level analysis of risk and protective factors. BMC pregnancy and childbirth. Springer; 2019; 19:59.
  9. World Health Organization (2015). Adolescent pregnancy situation in South-East Asia region. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia.
  10. Palamuleni ME (2017). Determinants of adolescent fertility in Malawi. Gender and Behavior. 15: IFE Centre for Psychological Studies (ICPS); 2017. pp. 10126–41.
  11. Kearney MS and Levine PB (2012). Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter? Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2012;26:141–63.
  12. Gideon R (2013). Factors associated with adolescent pregnancy and fertility in Uganda: analysis of the 2011 demographic and health survey data. American Journal of Sociological Research.3:30– 5.
  13. Neal S., Ruktanonchai C., Chandra-Mouli V., Matthews Z., and Tatem A. J (2016). Mapping adolescent first births within three east African countries using data from Demographic and Health Surveys: exploring geospatial methods to inform policy. Reproductive health Biomed Central. 13:1–29.
  14. United Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies